Well, it's official. The latest Harris Poll shows that Obama has a 58 point lead over McCain among GLBT registered voters. I was a Hillary man myself, but now that she's out of the running, I'm one of those voters who will pull the lever, press the button, or hang the chad for Obama. The poll says that 68 percent of GLBT registered voters support Obama, while 10 percent favor McCain, three percent go for Ralph Nader and one percent go with Bob Barr (who?). Fifteen percent are unsure (come on!), while three percent chose "other." I noticed that zero percent chose MileHighGayGuy--but being mixed race and bisexual, I must be the "other"! At least that's the box I'm always checking on all those standardized forms.
But it's pretty obvious that our community loves Obama, and the big man is going to be right here in Denver next week accepting the Democratic Party nomination. They say he's getting ready to name his vice president. I'm waiting by the phone - just in case.
Until that day, in honor of Obama, I'll be grooving to The Jets' 'You Got it All (Over Him)':
Check out the full report after the jump.
Obama Has 58 Point Lead over McCain among GLBT Registered Voters
Among gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender (GLBT) registered voters, 68 percent of GLBT adults favor Obama while 10 percent favor McCain. Three percent of GLBT adults favor Ralph Nader, while one percent chooses Bob Barr. Three percent choose “other,” while 15 percent of all GLBT voters are not yet sure which candidate to support. Among all registered U.S. voters, Obama retains an eight point lead over Senator John McCain in the latest Harris Poll, virtually unchanged since the nine point lead he enjoyed in early July. Some polls report the voting intentions of all adults, while others report on registered voters (or those who claim to be registered) and of so-called “likely voters.” In this Harris Poll, it makes very little difference which analytic method is used. Obama enjoys an eight-point lead among all adults without using the leaner questions and a nine point lead when the leaner question is used. Among registered voters he has an eight point lead, with and without using the leaner question.
Typically the Harris Poll does not focus on likely voters until after the party conventions because we believe it is too early to make sound judgments about who is, or is not, likely to vote before Labor Day. Most polls also ask people who are not sure how they would vote a so-called “leaning” question, asking people which way they lean. In many previous elections Republican candidates have done slightly better among registered voters than among all adults, reflecting the fact that they are somewhat more likely than Democrats to register to vote. The fact that there is no such difference in this poll may reflect the fact that many new voters registered to vote in the Democratic primary elections. Demographics Analysis Demographic analysis of these voting intentions shows that this is not a typical election. Indeed, some demographic groups are behaving quite atypically.
This demographic analysis also raises several warning signs for both candidates. These are some of the results from the latest Harris Poll of 2,834 U.S. adults, of whom 178 self-identified as gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgender, surveyed online between August 1 and 7, 2008 by Harris Interactive®: Age: Obama’s lead is critically dependent on his 33 point lead among Echo Boomers, people under 32 – but they are usually are the least likely generation to actually vote. If they do not vote very heavily in November this would hurt Obama’s chances. McCain leads among “Matures,” those over 62, by nine points, the generation that is usually the most likely to vote;
Gender: There is currently no gender gap in this election. Obama’s lead is almost the same among men (+8 points) and women (+10 points);
Race: Obama currently wins virtually all the African-American vote (+91) and most of the crucial Hispanic vote (+25) but loses the white vote by eight points. In the past whites were more likely to vote than blacks or Hispanics;
Education: In many elections, those with only a high school education or less vote heavily Democratic; in this poll, McCain actually leads by four points. This is the group where Obama’s race is most likely to hurt him. Obama leads among those with some college (+16), college graduates (+14) and has his biggest lead among those with post-graduate education (+30). However because more educated people are more likely to vote these findings are not good news for McCain;
Income: There is only a modest correlation between income and voting intentions. Obama leads among all income groups, with a2017 point lead among those with less than $35,000 and six points among those earning $75,000 or more;
Party Identification: Unsurprisingly, most Democrats prefer Obama (+72) and most Republicans favor McCain (+71). The crucial Independent vote currently tilts toward Obama by 11 points;
Political Philosophy: Conservatives favor McCain by 52 points and Liberals favor Obama by 73 points. The very important Moderate vote, a larger group than either Conservatives or Liberals, currently prefers Obama over McCain by 19 points.
