As millions of Americans prepare to head to the polls to cast the final ballots of the 2022 midterm elections, analysts and campaign strategists at the Human Rights Campaign (HRC) are seeing early signs that despite efforts by extremist candidates to suppress and demoralize millions of LGBTQ+ people, women, and people of color, the 2022 midterm elections will see LGBTQ+ voters make up more of the American electorate than in any election prior, and we’ll also see a record-breaking numbers of LGBTQ+ candidates being elected to public office — at every level of government. For the first time this year, LGBTQ+ people are on the ballot in every state across the country, and we’ll see higher levels of LGBTQ+ representation in elected office than ever before. HRC Interim President Joni Madison issued the following statement on the eve of the 2022 midterm elections:
“This election cycle we saw extremists, conspiracy theorists, and far-right radicals — backed and enabled by billionaires and wealthy special interests — step out of the shadows and bring homophobic and transphobic propaganda and disinformation to the masses. They spun vile and outlandish narratives in an attempt to defame and slander LGBTQ+ people, shamelessly seizing on anti-trans disinformation as a voter suppression tactic in the last days of the election — making their final pitch to voters by funneling tens of millions of dollars into false ads attacking transgender kids. They worked overtime trying to engineer artificial panic, in an attempt to pit Americans against each other, because they know that the only way to weaken us is to try to divide us.
“But the gears of progress are already turning, and we know they will not be stopped. Despite efforts by extremists to keep millions of people from voting, they can’t stop us from showing up and making our voices heard at the ballot box. For the first time ever, LGBTQ+ people this year are on the ballot in every state across the country, and we’ll see an openly lesbian woman elected as governor for the first time. We’ll see a record-breaking number of transgender and gender non-conforming people elected to public office, including in states that have never had openly transgender or gender non-conforming elected leaders represent them before. We’ll see the first openly gay immigrant elected to the U.S. Congress, and we’ll see Vermont for the first time send a woman — who is also openly lesbian — to the U.S. Congress. We’re proud to support these candidates and the hundreds of others we endorsed this year, which includes more women, more people of color, and more openly LGBTQ+ candidates than ever before.
“This year, LGBTQ+ people will make up a bigger proportion of the American electorate than ever before, turning out to vote in support of pro-equality, pro-democracy, and pro-choice candidates. We’ll also turn out to remind extremists that their rhetoric can’t erase the fact that LGBTQ+ voters are becoming one of the fastest growing voting blocs in the country — expected to surge to one-in-seven voters by 2030 and nearly one-in-five voters by 2040, fundamentally transforming and reshaping the American electoral landscape. And we’re showing up with our allies, the 62 million Equality Voters across the country, for whom LGBTQ+ equality is a make-or-break election issue.
“The extremists know they can’t prevent progress from roaring forward, and they know their days are numbered. They doubled down on their hatred this year because they know that this is their last gasp. They know that those they viciously attack will be the ones who will permanently render their agenda a relic of the past. We will continue to stand and fight every day alongside our allies and partners across the country, in support of a pro-democracy, pro-equality, and pro-choice future.”
CANDIDATES: Anticipated LGBTQ+ Electoral Victories
This year, HRC endorsed more people of color and openly LGBTQ+ candidates than ever before. The LGBTQ+ community is expected to score a series of historic victories across the country, continuing to make important strides toward stronger representation and visibility at every level of government.
- For the first time ever, LGBTQ+ candidates are on the ballot in every state across the country; Of the 1,065 LGBTQ+ hopefuls who ran primary campaigns for November’s midterms, a historic 678 made it onto the ballot — an 18 percent increase over 2020.
- This year voters are expected to elect the country’s first openly lesbian governor, with openly lesbian women vying for the governorships in both Massachussetts and Oregon (Maura Healey and Tina Kotek, respectively).
- This year, voters are expected to elect the country’s first openly gay immigrant to the U.S. Congress (California’s Robert Garcia).
- This year, voters in Vermont are expected to elect the first woman and the first lesbian from the state to the U.S. Congress (Becca Balint).
- This year, voters are expected to elect a record number of transgender and gender non-conforming people to public office — including in several states where openly transgender and gender non-conforming people have never served in public office.
- This year, HRC endorsed more people of color and openly LGBTQ+ candidates than ever before — reflecting our commitment to fighting for a future marked by more representation and visibility in Congress and at every level of government than we’ve ever seen.
- These victories are made possible by the ongoing work we’ve done in close collaboration with our many allies and partners in states across the country fighting on behalf of millions of Americans to ensure a future that is pro-democracy, pro-equality, and pro-choice.
VOTER IMPACT: Record-Breaking Number of LGBTQ+ Voters and “Equality Voters”
As we see a record-breaking number of LGBTQ+ candidates elected to public office, we also know there are more LGBTQ+ voters and “Equality Voters” than ever before, helping to drive pro-equality victories in states across the country.
- This year, LGBTQ+ voters are expected to make up 11% of the American electorate – more than in any election ever before — helping to drive support for pro-equality, pro-democracy, and pro-choice candidates in local, state, and federal elections.
- There are more eligible LGBTQ+ voters this year than in 2020 — and that trend will continue as LGBTQ+ people are becoming one of the fastest growing voting blocs in the country; By 2030, approximately one-in-seven voters will be LGBTQ+ (representing a sharp increase over the current one-in-ten) and will continue growing to one-in-five voters by 2040 — making LGBTQ+ voters one of the most influential voting constituencies in the country whose impact will permanently transform and reshape the American electoral landscape.
- That voting power is expected to be further bolstered by the 62 million “Equality Voters” nationwide for whom LGBTQ+ equality is a make-or-break issue, who we are mobilizing in support of our legislative and issue agenda as well as our endorsed candidates.
- LGBTQ+ voters and “Equality Voters” are slated to continue growing alongside the public’s support for LGBTQ+ people — support for LGBTQ+ rights is at an all-time high across the country, as eight-in-ten Americans support laws to protect LGBTQ+ people from discrimination, the highest it’s ever been, cutting across all partisan affiliations: Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. More than 70 percent of Americans also support marriage equality, including a majority of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents.
- And the LGBTQ+ community is growing: At least 20 million adults in the United States — nearly 8% of the total adult population — identify as LGBTQ+, including one-in-five Gen Z adults (more than any previous generation), according to recent results from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey.
